Foreclosure and mortgage default activity continues to fall…
If you have been reading my posts for the last few years I’ve been trying to put the media’s doom and gloom into proper prospective. YES, there have been a lot of foreclosures out there.
But homes in foreclosure today don’t tell us a thing about foreclosures of the future. Homeowners missing their first monthly payments do (can’t go into foreclosure if you are making your payments). Regardless of what you read in the paper or see them screaming at you about on cable news, anyone looking at the right data (patting myself on the back and saying “I told you so”) could tell you that – even though there was a sea of foreclosures a few years ago – with less and less people missing mortgage payments foreclosures of the future would be down.
I love being right! (especially about things that mean good news for all of us)
Every metro area in California saw a year over year drop in both foreclosures and first payment defualts from June 2011 – June 2012. To top that off, only two metro areas in the state, the epicenter of the mortgage crisis, were above the national average in these stats. These are wholesale changes in the data as compared to the last few years.
Even the Central Valley is showing signs of recovery. If California was the epicenter of the crisis, the central valley was the epicenter of the epicenter! The two areas mentioned above were Stockton and Merced, hit even harder than we were here in Sacramento and the rest of the state, but even their numbers are steadily improving. Topping the foreclosure news in Stockton the more important delinquency rate has improved by a full 3% year over year. Down from 12% to 9%. Still a high number but, as everything else is, slowly headed in the right direction.
More locally the data in the Sac Metro market (which includes Roseville and Rocklin) shows similarly encouraging results. The foreclosure rate is down to 2.5% from over 3% a year earlier. Surprisingly still, the foreclosure rate for the Sac Metro market is BELOW THE NATIONAL AVERAGE for the first time since before the crisis. Piling on the (relatively) good news the delinquency rate in our market was down over 2.0%, to 7% from slightly above 9% a year ago.
Our economy, looking at jobs and real estate has steadily, although slowly, been improving pretty much every month for a couple of years now. This is natural improvement, slow and steady in in the right direction, and I like what the future looks like.
Sincerely your Roseville Loan Guy,