It was the fifth month in a [...]]]> Home sales in the Sacramento region rose yet again last month, beating the rest of the state (which also rose with us, only not as much). Over 2,400 homes sold across the region in November, up just shy of 12% year over year.

It was the fifth month in a row of over 10% gains in sales volume, with sales in Sacramento County up just shy of 13% in November alone. Placer County, less hardly hit by the downturn had been leading the way in previous months saw homes sale increase by only half a percent. A small bump but a continuing trend upward.

Most of the demand across the board was for moderately priced homes with volume being in the $200,000 and under range. Homes in the $200-300,000 range stayed about the same while sales of homes costing over $300,000 actually slowed a bit.

Foreclosure rates are still higher than we want them to be (I’d like it to be at 0) however you’ll remember in previous posts that the number today is not what matters, it’s actually almost meaningless when it comes to predicting future distressed sales, the number we need to look at is actually how many homeowners are defaulting on their mortgage payments, a number that is dropping more and more every month.

The “news” knows that what sells is fear, scary doom and gloom is what gets the most readers and hits to their website. And, while the picture is not the prettiest, it’s a lot prettier than it was in the not to distant past and much prettier still than the pictures the promoters of fear want to sell you.

Currently the MMI Fund’s capital reserve ratio is 0.24% [...]]]> This month the FHA has reported to Congress that the MMI Fund (Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund), the backbone of its mortgage programs and what makes FHA mortgages possible, is going to return to its mandated capital reserve level faster than previously expected.

Currently the MMI Fund’s capital reserve ratio is 0.24% but that it would return to its mandated sooner than actuaries last predicted. “As was the case last year, the new actuarial study shows that FHA is expected to sustain significant losses from loans insured prior to 2009, and thus its capital reserve remains below the congressionally mandated threshold of 2% of total insurance-in-force,” an FHA official said. “However, the actuaries’ report concludes that, barring a further significant downturn in home prices, the MMI Fund will start to rebuild capital in 2012, and return to a level of 2% by 2014; outpacing last year’s prediction.”

“In the midst of a tough housing market the FHA MMI Fund continues to be actuarial sound.

“Because of the Obama administration’s strategy to protect the FHA Fund – tightening of risk controls, increased premiums to stabilize near-term finances and expanded loss mitigation assistance to avoid unnecessary claims – this past year’s endorsements had the highest credit quality ever recorded and will yield historically high levels of net receipts in the years ahead.”

The availability of FHA loans is a high part of our housing market and economy, both nationally and locally, and the health of the MMI Fund is also an important part of the housing market and greater economy. This is good news for both of those thing as well and, while we won’t see a more normal real estate market or economy for a while still, more and more news like this tells us the tide is turning!

~Greg

P.S. The FHA has never received any sort of taxpayer bailout! The MMI Fund keeps it solvent and without the need for any sort of congressional assistance. Truly an American success story…

1,746 homes were sold in [...]]]> A quarter of monthly double digit sales increases? Might be hard to believe with all the bad news we’re bombarded with every day, but it is 100% true. It’s been three straight months of at least 10% sales increases, that’s monthly, for the greater Sacramento area.

1,746 homes were sold in Sacramento County in September, a 13% increase from a year ago. Volume in Placer and Yolo Counties both increased by 22% while closings in El Dorado County beat them all at 23%.

This is great news for our local housing market and overall economy, but it doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods yet. Prices in many areas are still not appreciating yet and things probably won’t change for a while still. However the simple fact that more people are buying homes is going to change that sooner than later. Supply and demand is the rule and with local inventories as low as they are (less than two months in some local areas) prices simply have to start inching up in the not-too-distant future.

According to the report home sales in Placer County are up by more than 10% as well (as they are in [...]]]> Homes sold within Sacramento County increased by 12.5% last month per the most recent DataQuick report. 1,676 sales closed in Sacramento County in July compared to last year’s 1,490 sales.

According to the report home sales in Placer County are up by more than 10% as well (as they are in El Dorado and Yolo counties too) while at the same time sales volume across the entire state was down a tad (1.4%) for the same period.

This isn’t quite the end of the market as we’ve known it for the last few years but it is a good thing and points to a more normal/stable market in the near future. As always real estate is entirely local and it’s nice to see our market, long battered by the media, beating the rest of the state in sales volume.

~Greg
The Roseville Loan Guy

SEE CHART HERE

According to real estate data company RealtyTrac, Notice Of Default (or NOD) filings dropped to 21,721 for [...]]]> Foreclosure activity in the greater Sacramento real estate market is down more than 20% for the first six months of 2011. This closely follows a deep trend in decreasing foreclosure filings around the country…

According to real estate data company RealtyTrac, Notice Of Default (or NOD) filings dropped to 21,721 for the Sacramento market in the first half of the year, from 27,275 for the same period in 2010. RealtyTrac’s CEO, James Saccacio said; “Foreclosure activity continued to slow in the first half of 2011, especially in the most foreclosure-saturated markets.”

If any of you remember me talking about first payment defaults being down in 2009 and 2010 I predicted exactly this. 21,721 foreclosures is still not a pretty picture but the number is still getting better as less homeowners have been going into default on their mortgage payment for the last two years (as compared to the crisis year of 2008 and the first half of 2009). As this trend continues the number of foreclosures will continue to decline as well.

Foreclosure filings are down even more nationwide, decreasing 29.3% across the board. The Roseville/South Placer market is down even more than this (where we’re seeing a real stabilization and a return to a more normal housing market already).

~Greg